1725 - lucky or bad omen?

	Shah A Dadameah Thursday, 29 April 2010 15:55

NOMINATION day for the Hulu Selangor by-election was April 17 and voting was on April 25.

By sheer coincidence the two dates came together when the results were announced - Barisan Nasional candidate P Kamalanathan won by a majority of 1,725 votes over PKR rival Zaid Ibrahim.

In a 'Ripley's Believe It Or Not' fashion, the two crucial dates for the parliamentary by-election had somehow indicated that the winner of the contest would lead by that many votes.

It had been a close fight right up to the finishing line between the two parties and it was only towards the end of tallying the votes that it dawned on the Barisan it had been successful in taking back the seat it lost in 2008.

As those familiar with horses know, a thoroughbred never looks at others when on the course, it just concentrates on running the fastest race it can.

To their credit, the two sides had worked equally hard through the grueling course and both were thoroughbred material but it was the younger Barisan stallion that eventually outpaced the experienced and over-confident PKR horse.

Given the Chinese penchant for punting on numbers, one wonders if there would be a rush among them to the betting shops this weekend to put their money on those four digits.

Then again, the majority of the Chinese voters in Hulu Selangor had snubbed the Barisan and now that their 'horse' had lost, they may not be in the mood to party.

Lucky or ban omen?

Anyway, the PKR flag bearer had yet to concede defeat to the political novice as Zaid intends to file an election petition to declare the Hulu Selangor results null and void.

So, we wait for the signs to show if there would be yet another by-election in the parliamentary seat.

The coincidence regarding the dates and the vote-majority was first spotted by blogger Faisal Robhan and repeated on the 'Brick In The Wall' and other blogs, which asked whether the figure 1,725 spells lucky for Kamalanathan and the Barisan or is it a bad omen of an impending nightmare for them?

To recap, the Barisan candidate – nicknamed Kamal Alan Nathan, the 1Malaysia man – had been a last-minute choice after Muhyiddin Yassin, the coalition's deputy chief and by-election director rejected earlier names submitted by Umno and the MIC.

The Barisan had actually wasted much time sorting out the names and selecting the 'right candidate' whereas the PKR had been sure from the start that it wanted Zaid, the only prominent supreme council member who has yet to be a state assemblyman, MP or senator.

And just as the Barisan camp appeared to be splitting over the issue, Muhyiddin made a bold decision to sideline veteran politician G Palanivel and to give the responsibility to 'rookie' Kamalanathan.

Palanivel, who would be sworn in as a Senator and subsequently reinstated as a deputy minister, conceded that Kamalanathan came into the race without 'excess baggage' and that he had met the Barisan's expectations of a young, non-controversial IT–savvy candidate for the by-election.

In the meantime, the PKR was bathing in the glory of street polls that repeatedly said Zaid was leading the race and likely to romp home as the winner.

However, along the way, the PKR campaign faltered when disclosures were made of his flamboyant secular lifestyles.

The PKR quickly went into 'damage control' mode but despite rebranding him as a 'Haji' and getting PAS spiritual advisor Nik Aziz Nik Mat to persuade Malay voters to back the former Cabinet minister, only the Chinese electorate steadfastly stood by Zaid.

The Malay and Indian voters, in droves, gave their support to the Barisan.

Chinese voters with Zaid

The MCA, still reeling from its tense general assembly, did not perform up to expectations to woo the Chinese voters and one of the first thing that party president Dr Chua Soi Lek did after the by-election results were known was to fire a missile at Perkasa president Ibrahim Ali.

Chua accused the Pasir Mas MP as being the culprit behind the MCA's losses as Ibrahim had allegedly incited the Malays to hate the Chinese and had also told the Government to not give too much attention to Chinese interests.

There were also other factors that contributed to the loss of Chinese votes, according to the party's preliminary post-mortem, one of which was that Zaid had a higher profile than new face Kamalanathan.

Zaid was also considered 'liberal-minded' and a hero among young Chinese voters despite attempts to discredit the PKR candidate as a drinker and gambler.

Another factor, said Chua, was the leadership differences between former Hulu Selangor MCA chairman Ch'ng Toh Eng and the incumbent, so there could be elements of sabotage.

The third factor was the sensitive statements made by certain political leaders about the Chinese, such as they should be grateful for being given citizenship and that they were "pendatang" (immigrants).

Dr Chua said the death of Selangor political aide Teoh Beng Hock under mysterious circumstances and the Chinese community's greater awareness of national issues were among other contributing factors.

Some observers, however, feel that Chua may not be telling the whole story about the Chinese snub of the Barisan.
For instance, he said, in the areas where former party president Ong Tee Keat was leading the campaign, the Chinese voters came out to give their support.

"He turned around what used to be a 'black area' where the Barisan previously lost 600 votes but won by 17 votes in the recent by-election.

"Serendah polling area, where Ong went four times to canvass, recorded an increase of Chinese voters who voted for BN from 69 in the last general election to 626.

"This is the only Chinese area that saw an increase in Chinese voters voting for BN," he said, adding that in all other areas where MCA bigwigs campaigned, the Barisan lost heavily.

Asked his thoughts about this matter, Ong told reporters in Putrajayaon Tuesday: "What we want to know is the heart and soul of the people when they make certain decisions...there must be some reasons behind (their decisions).

"Is it because of certain misgivings, fear, founded or unfounded? I think all these need to be studied."

Asked whether MCA lost the Chinese votes because of the rift in the party, he replied: "I think he (Chua) should know better when he had his walkabout, how the people or the community received him."

One observer is worried that in rejecting the Barisan, the Chinese community risks being alienated from power.

"The Barisan can govern with the sole support of Indians and Malays, as reflected in the result of Hulu Selangor.

"If the Chinese wants to have a say in national policies, please wake up. If the Chinese do not support Barisan be prepared to lose all political influence in the new Malaysia," he said.

Caught in a time wrap

Many blogs continued to discuss the by-election and also questioned the future of Chinese vote in the the country's electoral process.

One posting said the power shift within the Chinese community has moved to the head of clans and Chinese associations, no more with political heads.

Commenting on the Barisan machinery, a positing on the 'Brick In The Wall' blog said it is caught in a time warp and has yet to understand campaigning in the new environment, even in poor Internet access Hulu Selangor.

"Central command and control does not work. Preplanning does not work.

Everything is about speed and distribution - speed of respond, speed of attack, surprises and speedy responses, and staying current.

"Party machinery was lazy, calculative and strategically near inoperable.

"Party leaders, including some ministers, were more interested in campaigning for themselves and politicking than campaigning. BN election machinery remain dependent on Government machineries and unofficial "component parties". They can't afford to continue that way."

SHAH A DADAMEAH is senior editor with the Malaysian Mirror.